I always hear stats about how college graduates do better in health, earnings, and personal relationships compared to high school graduates. But is that really a fair comparison?
Wouldn’t we need a study that compares people with the same intelligence, family background, and other factors—except one group went to college and the other didn’t? Are there any studies like that? And why don’t people talk about them if they exist?
Why wouldn’t it be a valid comparison? It’s just one piece of data.
No one is saying you have to treat those stats as proof that college directly causes better outcomes. Correlation doesn’t always mean causation.
@Chris
It’s a data point, sure, but how useful is it? If someone’s deciding whether to go to college, the real question is: will college directly improve their lifetime earnings? That’s way harder to figure out from the info we have. We need solid data showing what college causes, not just what it’s correlated with.
@PoshDontleton
Even if it doesn’t help someone decide about college, it can still be valuable. Just because it’s not helpful for every purpose doesn’t mean it’s not useful at all.
Chris said:
@PoshDontleton
Even if it doesn’t help someone decide about college, it can still be valuable. Just because it’s not helpful for every purpose doesn’t mean it’s not useful at all.
Okay, then what’s it useful for? What practical decisions or understanding can we get from it?
@PoshDontleton
Plenty of things! Governments might use it to predict how much to spend on social services in areas with fewer college grads. Or researchers could track how income gaps between high school and college grads grow over time. There’s a lot to learn that isn’t just about convincing people to go to college.
Why not take a random sample of both groups and compare?
The setup you’re describing introduces too many variables and opens the door for bias.
Dexter said:
Why not take a random sample of both groups and compare?
The setup you’re describing introduces too many variables and opens the door for bias.
But the question is whether college causes better outcomes. If people who go to college are already different from those who don’t, how does a random sample help us untangle that?
There’s a study called the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) that’s been used to look at how education affects life outcomes. For example, a paper by Behrman and Birdsall in the 1980s found that even when controlling for family and individual ability, higher education was linked to better earnings and health. Both the amount and quality of schooling matter, though.
Unber said:
https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/causal_educ_earnings.pdf
Thanks for sharing! It looks like these studies consider the lost earnings during college years and the debt college grads take on, as well as the higher taxes they pay. They also seem to assume that a high school grad at the 50th percentile might end up in a higher earnings percentile compared to a college grad at the same level.
This is a good point. Maybe the comparison should include groups like manual laborers, office workers without college, and then college grads.
For example, health problems often come from dangerous jobs, like construction or factory work. There have been cases of lung diseases linked to marble cutting. College grads also tend to have better insurance and healthcare access. Breaking it down by different job types could be really helpful.
The comparison is valid. It’s based on the entire population, so there’s no one left out.
It shows that college grads have access to all careers, but high school grads don’t. A college grad can become a doctor, while a high school grad can’t. Both can work as landscapers, but only one can be an architect. Sure, there are high-earning high school grads, but they’re rare.
@zane
But that doesn’t answer whether college is “worth it.” Sure, it opens doors, but it also costs a lot. Without a proper causal study, we can’t know if those same successful college grads would’ve done just as well without college.
@PoshDontleton
Figuring out if it’s “worth it” depends on the person. College opens up opportunities, yes, but it also gives knowledge and connections that you can’t measure easily.
For example, how do you measure the value of new ideas or networking? Or compare a cancer researcher to a skilled ironworker? Everyone’s situation is different, but college generally gives you more options. That’s something we can be sure of.
Your comparison is unrealistic. Unless you’re studying identical twins, you’ll never get perfect data, and even twins aren’t exactly the same in intelligence or abilities.
If you mean “similar” instead of “identical,” then those studies do exist. Maybe you just don’t like the results. But science isn’t about ignoring data you don’t like. What kind of study would you want to see that doesn’t already exist?
The problem is that not all college degrees lead to high-paying or enjoyable jobs. A lot of people forget that high schools used to have great vocational programs. Some still do, but you have to find them yourself since schools mostly push for college.
If you learn a trade while in high school, you can still get a good job without going to college.
You might want to check out the book The Case Against Education by Bryan Caplan. It talks about this topic in detail.